Markets are closed for the Fourth. The week is over. But in Tehran, the week is just beginning. Iran started funeral ceremonies Friday for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the Supreme Leader killed by U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, the first day of the war. His body was carried into Tehran's Grand Mosalla before dawn. The processions will move through Qom and end in Mashhad on July 9 with his burial. Officials expect 15 to 20 million mourners — the biggest state funeral in Iran's history. While they bury the old leader, the new one — Mojtaba Khamenei, the son who took over — has still not been seen in public. And the talks are paused. The U.S. agreed to halt negotiations for at least a week out of respect for the funeral. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said the next session will be scheduled "at the earliest possible time" after the commemorations end. That means no talks until July 10 at the soonest. The 60-day clock from the June 17 MOU keeps running. About 16 days are already gone. Nuclear denuclearization — the biggest item on the list — has barely been touched.
No close today. Markets were dark for Independence Day. Thursday's numbers are the ones that carry into Monday: the Dow at a record 52,805, up 594 points on a 57,000-job payrolls miss. The S&P flat. The Nasdaq down 0.8%. The semiconductor ETF down 5.2% for the second straight day. The week ended the way June ended — the Dow at the top, the Nasdaq under pressure, and everything else somewhere in between.
| The Numbers I Circled |
Week of June 29 – July 2 |
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| Dow Jones |
4 record closes |
ATH 52,805 |
| June NFP |
57,000 jobs |
vs 115K est |
| MOU Clock |
16 of 60 days gone |
talks paused |
| The Week In Four Days |
June 29 – July 2 |
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| S&P 500 |
~7,450 |
+0.2% |
| Dow Jones |
52,805 |
+1.5% |
| Nasdaq |
~25,600 |
−2.5% |
| SMH (chips) |
2 days −10% |
−8% |
| WTI Crude |
~$68 |
war low |
| Gas (avg) |
$3.82 |
−10% month |
| Week's Losers |
June 29 – July 2 |
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| Week's Gainers |
June 29 – July 2 |
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The week told one story in four chapters. Monday: the Dow crossed 52,000 for the first time, Alphabet jumped 4.6% on its first day in the index, the Supreme Court protected Fed independence, and the weekend Iran flare-up was absorbed without a scratch. Tuesday: the S&P gained 0.79% and the Nasdaq rose 1.52% to close the best quarter since 2020 — S&P up 9.6% for the half, Nasdaq up 12.8%, Russell 2000 up 22% (best since 1991). Wednesday: Meta surged 10% on its cloud business announcement while Micron fell 8%, SanDisk fell 8%, and CoreWeave dropped 11% — the AI trade split into builders and sellers. Thursday: NFP came in at 57,000 — half of expectations. The Dow hit a record. Warsh softened from "prices are too high" to "inflation risks have come down" in 24 hours.
The Dow set four record closes in four sessions this week. Four. The last time that happened was the post-election run in November 2024. The index gained about 500 points on the week. The S&P was roughly flat. The Nasdaq lost about 2.5%, dragged down by two straight days of semiconductor selling that erased most of the Micron-led bounce from the week before.
What The Market Is Pricing In
The funeral changes the calendar. Iran's Khamenei will be mourned from Tehran to Mashhad over the next six days. The U.S. agreed to pause talks for the duration. That means no progress on the deal — the nuclear inspections, the Strait tolls, the frozen assets, the final terms — until at least July 10. And the 60-day clock from the MOU doesn't stop.
Here's the math. The MOU was signed June 17. Sixty days puts the deadline at August 16. Sixteen days are already gone. Only two rounds of actual talks have happened — one direct meeting and one indirect session through mediators. Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf told Chinese officials that Iran plans to impose tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by mid-August — which lines up almost exactly with the 60-day expiration. That's not a coincidence. Iran is using the clock as a lever: sign a deal by mid-August, or we start charging everyone to use the Strait.
The talks are paused for at least a week while Iran buries its former Supreme Leader, the 60-day window from the MOU is nearly a quarter gone with nuclear negotiations barely started, and the market is heading into a long weekend betting that the deal holds — but the clock is now the biggest risk, not the bombs. Oil tells the story. WTI hit $68 on Wednesday — the lowest since the first trading day of the war. Gas is at $3.82, down 10% in a month. The market has priced in peace. If the talks stall after the funeral — if Iran and the U.S. can't get back to the table by mid-July — that peace premium starts to unwind. Oil goes back to $80. And the inflation story that was getting better starts getting worse again.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader, has not been seen in public since taking power. He was reported injured in the same February 28 strike that killed his father. Whether he appears at the funeral will tell you more about the stability of the regime — and the durability of the deal — than anything a mediator says in Doha. If he shows up, the regime is consolidated and the deal has a counterparty. If he doesn't, the questions about who's actually running Iran get louder.
Three things I'm watching when markets reopen Monday:
01 — Does Mojtaba Khamenei show his face?
The funeral runs from July 4 through July 9 — Tehran, Qom, and burial in Mashhad. Fifteen to twenty million mourners are expected. And the one person everyone is watching for hasn't been seen in public since the February 28 strike that killed his father and reportedly injured him. If Mojtaba appears at the funeral, the regime is consolidated and the deal has a counterparty the market can trust. If he doesn't, the questions about who's actually running Iran — and who can sign a binding agreement — get louder. The deal's biggest risk right now isn't the terms. It's whether there's someone on the other side who can deliver.
02 — Korea's Monday open sets the chip tone
Korea's Kospi has crashed three times in two weeks — dropping 10%, 5.8%, and 7.9% in separate sessions. SK Hynix and Samsung have each fallen more than 20% from their June peaks, even as both announced over $500 billion in new domestic capacity. Sunday night U.S. time is Monday morning in Seoul. If Korea stabilizes, the two-week chip rout may have found a floor and the semiconductor ETF can stop bleeding. If it falls again, the contagion spreads into SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion on Tuesday and turns what should be a tailwind into more selling pressure.
03 — Oil below $70 heading into June CPI
WTI hit $68 on Wednesday — the lowest level since the first trading day of the war. Brent is at $72. Gas is at $3.82, down 10% in a month. If oil holds below $70 through next week, the June CPI print (due around July 10) will be the first to capture the full oil crash. That number could show headline inflation falling from 4.2% toward 3.5% — and if it does, the rate-hike conversation is over for good. The Iran funeral is the wildcard: Ghalibaf's "call for vengeance" rhetoric could rattle crude markets. But as long as tankers keep moving through the Strait, the inflation math keeps getting better.
The Dow set four records this week. The Nasdaq fell. Payrolls came in at 57,000. Warsh softened his tone. And now the market goes dark for three days while Iran buries a Supreme Leader, the 60-day clock keeps running, and the data that arrived this week — the weakest jobs number of the year, the lowest oil since the war, and a Fed chair who shifted from hawkish to cautious in 24 hours — gets digested over hot dogs and fireworks. The second half just started. It already looks nothing like the first.
That's it for the week. Happy Fourth. I'll be back Monday after the close.
— Tom Hartley
Today In Perspective · Published daily, Monday–Friday, after the close
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The author is not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
