Markets are closed today. The news isn't. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran developed a framework for a 60-day ceasefire extension that includes demining and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It's not signed yet. But Brent fell below $100 on Saturday for the first time in weeks. If this deal closes, the oil shock that drove CPI to 3.8% and PPI to 6% starts to unwind. The inflation math changes. The rate-hike math changes. And the equity market that spent two weeks fighting the bond market finally gets to stop fighting. Tuesday's open will tell you whether the market believes it.

No session today — Memorial Day. Here's where we left things Friday: the Dow closed at a record for the second straight day. The S&P 500 finished its eighth straight winning week — the longest streak since late 2023. Oil was at $98. Yields were easing. And the market went into the long weekend betting that Iran would deal.

Over the weekend, the deal got closer. Trump said Saturday night that an agreement is "largely negotiated" and will be announced shortly. The Washington Post reported that the U.S. and Iran have developed a framework: a 60-day ceasefire extension, during which the Strait of Hormuz gets demined and reopened to prewar traffic within 30 days. The U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Iran would be free to sell oil again.

But it's not done. No agreement has been signed. The deal is awaiting Iranian approval. Iran's Fars news agency said the Strait would remain under Iran's management — which contradicts Trump's claim that Iran would no longer control access. The nuclear issue is punted to later talks, which makes Israel nervous. Trump told Netanyahu he would "stand firm" on dismantlement, but the current text doesn't include it. Secretary of State Rubio said Sunday: "This problem will be solved, one way or the other."

Brent fell as much as 5.2% to $98.12 on Saturday on the news. WTI was near $92. Then Trump said he wouldn't "rush" and the price pulled back from the lows. JPMorgan said if the Strait reopens in early June, oil averages $97 for the rest of the year. The national gas average is $4.51 — up 51% since the war started and the most expensive Memorial Day in four years.

Stocks don't price today — literally, the market is closed. But the news doesn't wait for the bell. And the news this weekend is the biggest single development since the war started on February 28.

Here's the chain. For three months, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed. Twenty percent of global oil supply flows through that channel. With it shut, oil went from $60 to $110. Gas went from $3 to $4.50. CPI went from 2.5% to 3.8%. PPI went from 3% to 6%. The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007. Rate-hike odds went from zero to 50%. The entire macro story of 2026 — inflation, yields, the Fed — has been an oil story. And the oil story has been a Hormuz story.

If the Strait reopens, the chain runs in reverse. Oil falls. Gas falls. Input costs fall. CPI starts coming down in the July and August readings. The Fed gets room to hold rates instead of hike. Yields ease. And the equity market — which spent two weeks fighting the bond market for every point — gets to run on earnings again without the headwind.

But there's a reason the market finished Friday off its highs. These talks have fallen apart before. Trump set deadlines in March, April, and May — and each one passed without a deal. Iran's ceasefire commitments in April were called a "poor job" by Trump within days. The nuclear issue — the one Israel and the U.S. both say is non-negotiable — isn't in this framework. And Iran's internal politics are messy: the Supreme Leader wants the enriched uranium to stay, the foreign ministry wants sanctions relief, and the Revolutionary Guard wants to keep control of the Strait.

I've been doing this long enough to know that a deal that's "largely negotiated" on a Saturday night can be dead by Monday morning. But I've also been doing it long enough to know that when both sides are talking about 60-day extensions and phased reopenings and asset releases, the parameters of a deal exist. The question isn't whether a deal is possible. It's whether it's possible this week.

Three things I'm watching for Tuesday's open:

The Iranian official told the Washington Post that an announcement with further details could come Monday. If it comes before futures open Sunday evening, the market prices it overnight. If it comes Tuesday morning, the first 30 minutes of trading tell you everything. Watch WTI at the 6:00 PM ET futures open Sunday and at the 9:30 AM bell Tuesday. If oil opens below $90, the deal is real. If it opens above $95, the market doesn't believe it yet.

Dell surged 16% Friday on analyst upgrades. The company reports after the close Tuesday. After Nvidia's beat-and-fall last week, the market is in a "show me" mood on tech earnings. If Dell confirms the AI server build-out is accelerating, the picks-and-shovels trade from two weeks ago gets a second wind. If it misses, the 16% pre-earnings gain evaporates.

The new Fed chair was sworn in Friday. He hasn't said a word about rates, inflation, or the balance sheet. If he speaks this week — and a framework deal on Iran would give him a reason to — his tone on inflation sets the market's expectations for the June 17-18 FOMC meeting. Dovish Warsh plus an Iran deal plus falling oil would be the most bullish combination the market has seen all year.

The deal isn't done. But the framework is on the table. The Strait that drove every inflation number, every yield spike, and every rate-hike bet of 2026 could start reopening within days. Tuesday's open is the most important session since the war began.

That's it for today. See you tomorrow after the close.