Record day. The Dow gained 468 points to close at 51,671 — a new all-time high, the first since the Broadcom selloff started eight sessions ago. The S&P rose 1.65% to 7,554. The Nasdaq jumped 3.07% to 26,684, its best session since March 31. Seventy of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 finished green. The breadth was real. This wasn't five chip stocks carrying the tape. This was the whole market moving.

Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market priced today is the end of the inflation crisis — not because the data changed, but because the cause of the data is about to go away.

Here's the chain. The war shut the Strait of Hormuz for 16 weeks. That pushed oil from $70 to $95. That pushed gas, shipping, and jet fuel higher. That pushed CPI from 3.2% to 4.2% and PPI to 6.5%. That repriced the Fed from three cuts to a possible hike. That repriced the 10-year yield higher. That repriced every stock in the S&P lower. Every link in that chain started with one event: the war. And the market just got told the war is ending.

If the Strait reopens and oil holds at $80 — which an analyst on CNBC called "a strong signal that we don't need to raise rates and that price pressure should alleviate relatively quickly" — then the July CPI print falls. If July CPI falls, the rate-hike talk goes away. If the rate-hike talk goes away, the 10-year eases, the equity risk premium expands, and the S&P math goes back to where it was in late May when the index was above 7,500.

I watched the same trade in January 1991. The Gulf War's air campaign started January 17. The S&P gained 4% that day — one of its best of the year. The market had spent five months pricing the worst: Saddam in Kuwait, oil spiking, recession looming. Once the campaign started and the outcome became clear, all that fear came out in one session. Today is the 2026 version. Sixteen weeks of fear pricing just left the building. But 1991 also taught a lesson: the rally was real, but the economic damage from five months of high oil didn't reverse overnight. The economy still slowed. The question for Warsh on Wednesday: does the deal give him cover to hold, or has the damage already been done?

Three things I'm watching:

This is it. Warsh's first decision. CPI at 4.2%. PPI at 6.5%. Rate-hike odds were at 98% ten days ago. But now oil is at $80 and the war is ending. The TheStreet reported that the White House is signaling the deal takes pressure off Warsh. If he holds and calls the inflation "war-driven and transitory," the market rallies into the signing on Thursday. If he hikes 25 basis points and says the data demanded it, the record high becomes a one-day event and the S&P gives it all back. Watch the dot plot — if there still is one. And watch the word "transitory." The last time a Fed chair used it was Powell in 2021. It didn't age well. Warsh will need a better word.

The market will be closed for Juneteenth. The signing happens while Wall Street is off. If it goes smoothly, Friday opens with a gap up and oil tests $75. If it falls apart — if the nuclear terms aren't resolved, if Israel objects, if the mine-clearing timeline stalls — Friday opens red and the last ten days of hope get unwound. The market has priced the deal as done. Any sign it's not done sends oil straight back above $90.

SPCX has gained roughly 42% in two sessions — $135 to $190 range. It's now above a $2.5 trillion market cap. The Nasdaq-100 will add it within weeks. Institutional money is chasing: Rinehart with $1 billion, BlackRock with $5 billion from the IPO. The question is whether the stock consolidates and builds a base above the $135 IPO price, or whether the retail allocation (30% of the offering) starts selling into the pop. Alibaba gained 38% on day one in 2014 and gave back 22% over the next two months. SpaceX's trajectory this week will tell you whether this is a new market leader or a momentum trade running on fumes.

The deal is done. The Dow is at a record. Oil is at $80. And in 48 hours, Warsh gives his first press conference as Fed chair with the clearest reason to hold rates he's ever had. If he takes it, the second half of 2026 starts now. If he doesn't, the market learns the hard way that the data on the books still matters, even when the cause of the data is gone.

That's it for today. See you tomorrow after the close.