Markets were closed for Juneteenth. The war wasn't. The MOU that Trump signed at Versailles and Pezeshkian signed in Tehran on Wednesday is in effect. The 14 points are on paper. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening — ten tankers went through Thursday, and the alternative routes on both sides are fully open. But the Geneva talks that were supposed to start today? Postponed. Vance didn't go. Iran didn't go. Switzerland confirmed the delay. Israel hit Lebanon overnight — 21 killed, four Israeli soldiers dead — and Iran said it wouldn't negotiate until the strikes stopped. Then Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew their ceasefire around 9 AM Eastern. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he "held a different view" on the deal but accepted it after Pezeshkian's assurances. The deal is signed. The ships are moving. And the 60-day clock is ticking on negotiations that haven't started yet. Monday will price all of it.
The Close
There was no close today. Markets were shut for Juneteenth. Thursday's numbers — S&P up 1.15%, Nasdaq up 1.5%, Dow up 0.80% — are the last print before the long weekend. What happened between Thursday's bell and Monday's open is the story.
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| Iran War | 112 days | deal signed | ||
| FOMC Dots | 9 of 18 want hikes | median 3.8% | ||
| WTI Crude | $76.27 | −$20 from peak | ||
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| Information Technology |
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+2.0% | ||
| Communication Services |
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+1.5% | ||
| Consumer Discretionary |
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+1.2% | ||
| Financials |
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+1.0% | ||
| Industrials |
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+0.8% | ||
| Health Care |
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+0.6% | ||
| Materials |
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+0.4% | ||
| Utilities |
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+0.2% | ||
| Consumer Staples |
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+0.1% | ||
| Real Estate |
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−0.3% | ||
| Energy |
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−0.8% | ||
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The Geneva talks didn't happen. Both sides stayed home. Vance postponed his trip — the White House said logistics. Iran refused to send its team — said Israeli strikes in Lebanon had to stop first. Switzerland confirmed: postponed. The MOU itself is still in effect. It was signed digitally on Wednesday. But the follow-up negotiations — the ones that are supposed to convert 14 points into a real deal within 60 days — hit a wall before they started. Israel struck southern and eastern Lebanon overnight. Twenty-one people were killed. Four Israeli soldiers died. Then Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew their ceasefire around 9 AM Eastern. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he "held a different view" on the deal but accepted it after Pezeshkian's assurances. That's not a ringing endorsement. That's a man giving himself room to walk away.
But the oil is moving. Ship-tracking data showed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz surged after the deal was confirmed. The 107-day blockade that cut tanker transits by 95% is lifting. The main central channel is still closed — an estimated 80 mines that the Pentagon says will take up to six months to sweep. But the northern route through Iranian waters and the southern route through Omani waters are both fully open. Lloyd's List counted 550 merchant vessels preparing to exit the Gulf, including 160 tankers. WTI was at $76 when the market closed Thursday. Oil fell further Friday on the prospect of more supply returning.
The week was the most loaded stretch of news since the war started. Monday: the deal was announced and the Dow hit a record. Tuesday: SpaceX passed Microsoft and bought Cursor for $60 billion. Wednesday: Warsh held rates but the dot plot showed nine of eighteen officials want to hike — the most hawkish shift since 2022 — and he killed forward guidance. Thursday: the market bounced 1.15% because the deal details were bigger than the dots. Friday: markets closed, Geneva postponed, Lebanon erupted, ceasefire renewed, and the ships kept going through the Strait anyway.
The S&P started the week at 7,554 and ended at 7,505. All that noise — a record, a mega-IPO acquisition, a hawkish Fed, a peace deal, a postponed negotiation, a Lebanon flare-up — and the index moved less than 1% on the week. The market spent five days pricing two opposite forces and ended up roughly where it started.
What The Market Is Pricing In
The MOU is signed. The ships are moving. The talks are stalled. And the market, which has been closed all day while the deal frayed at the edges, will price all three of those facts at once Monday morning.
Here's the chain. The war closed the Strait for 107 days. That pushed oil from $70 to $95. That pushed CPI from 3.2% to 4.2% and PPI to 6.5%. That repriced the Fed from three cuts to nine dots wanting hikes. That sent the 2-year yield to 4.15%. That killed the equity risk premium and compressed the math on every growth stock in the S&P. Every link in the chain started with the Strait being closed. The Strait is now open — at least the northern and southern routes. Ten tankers went through Thursday. More followed Friday. Lloyd's List counted 550 vessels preparing to exit the Gulf.
If oil falls to $65 by August — and with Iran's oil hitting the market freely, the SPR being refilled, and OPEC production still elevated, that's a reasonable target — then the July and August CPI readings drop below 3.5%. If CPI drops below 3.5%, the nine hawkish dots become irrelevant. The data changes the dots. And if the dots shift back to neutral by September, the market goes from pricing hikes to pricing a hold — and the S&P math goes back to where it was in late May when the index was above 7,500.
The deal is signed, the ships are moving, but the talks collapsed on day one because Israel hit Lebanon and Iran refused to negotiate until the strikes stopped — and the market now has to decide Monday whether the Geneva postponement is a speed bump or the first crack in a 60-day window that's already burning. That's the question. The MOU gives both sides 60 days to convert 14 points into a final deal. The clock started Thursday. Two days in, neither side has shown up to the table. If the talks reschedule next week and the Strait keeps filling with tankers, the market treats this as noise and the peace rally extends. If Iran digs in — if it demands Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon before any negotiations — the 60-day window burns without progress, the main channel stays mined, and the oil floor moves from $76 back toward $85.
The Iran war began on February 28, 2026. The Gulf War ceasefire was announced on February 28, 1991 — the same date, 35 years earlier. In 1991, the S&P had rallied 15% from its October 1990 low by the time the ceasefire was signed. The market priced the war's end before the ink dried. Then it kept going — up another 25% over the following year. But the character of the rally changed. The fear premium came out and what replaced it was an earnings market. That's what Monday starts — or tries to. The war market is ending. But 1991 was clean: Iraq surrendered, Kuwait was liberated, oil dropped, and that was it. This one is messy. The MOU is signed but the talks are postponed. The Strait is opening but 80 mines are still in the main channel. The Supreme Leader accepted the deal but said he disagreed with it. The war is over on paper. The cleanup has barely begun.
What's Next
Three things I'm watching over the weekend and into Monday:
01 — Geneva talks: postponed, not canceled
Vance didn't go. Iran didn't go. Switzerland confirmed the delay. But the MOU is still signed. The Strait is still reopening — ten vessels went through Thursday, alternative routes are open. The question for Monday is whether the postponement is logistics (as the White House says) or leverage (Iran using Lebanon to extract more). If talks reschedule for early next week, the market treats this as a bump. If Iran digs in and demands Israel withdraw from Lebanon before any negotiations, the 60-day window starts burning without progress — and oil stops falling.
02 — Monday morning oil price
The Strait's alternative routes are open. Iran can sell freely. But the main central channel has 80 mines and won't be fully clear for months. Thursday's close was WTI $76.27. Oil fell further Friday on the prospect of more supply. If oil opens Monday below $72, the peace dividend is accelerating and the inflation story shifts within weeks. If it opens above $76, the market is pricing the Geneva delay and the mine-clearing timeline — and the physical reopening will be slower than the diplomatic one.
03 — Lebanon is now the deal's weakest link
Iran didn't cancel Geneva over logistics. It canceled because Israel struck southern Lebanon overnight, killed 21 people, and lost four of its own soldiers in the fighting. Then Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew the ceasefire at 9 AM — for the third time since the MOU was announced. Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel's military will stay in a "security zone" in southern Lebanon as long as security "requires it." Iran has made it clear: no talks until Lebanon is quiet. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah signed the MOU. They aren't bound by it. And every time the ceasefire breaks and reforms, Iran has another reason to delay the negotiations. The 60-day clock is ticking. Lebanon decides whether it ticks toward a deal or toward nothing.
The S&P ended the week flat after a record, a hawkish Fed, and a peace deal that's already fraying. The next move won't come from the dot plot or the Strait. It'll come from a border in southern Lebanon that neither Washington nor Tehran controls. That's the part nobody priced yet.
That's it for today. Have a good weekend. I'll be back on Monday after the close.
