The reason is simple: inflation is about speed, but households live at the new level. Prices may stop rising fast, yet many of the increases stick. Rent rarely falls back. Insurance rarely resets. Grocery totals may calm down, but they often stay higher than before.

Wages have risen, too. But for plenty of families, pay did not catch up fast enough while prices jumped. The gap remains. And when the gap remains, people look for a bridge.

That bridge is often credit. Cards. Buy-now-pay-later. Longer loan terms. Smaller payments spread over more months. It can feel like a practical choice. It keeps life moving. It keeps routines intact.

But it also adds a second job. Not another shift at work. Another monthly obligation. A new set of payments layered on top of the old ones.

The “after” period is where the story gets tricky.

When prices are climbing quickly, the pain is obvious. When inflation slows, the headlines improve. Yet the bill at the counter still reflects the higher price level. That is why “inflation is cooling” does not always match how people feel.

In this stage, households often do not slam the brakes. They adjust in smaller ways first.

They change what they buy. Where they buy it. How they pay.

The slowdown often arrives through the spending mix before it arrives through job losses. That is a key point. It can look like the consumer is fine because money is still being spent. But the pattern underneath is changing.

This order of events is not new.

In the late 1970s, inflation was high. In the early 1980s, inflation cooled, but comfort did not return overnight. The price level had moved up. At the same time, high interest rates made borrowing costly. Spending weakened, and credit got tighter. The economy did not need a single dramatic headline to feel the squeeze. The pressure came from monthly payments and tighter conditions.

A different version showed up in the mid-2000s. Easy credit helped households keep spending even when income growth was not enough on its own. For a while, borrowing made the gap easier to hide. When credit tightened, the adjustment came quickly. It did not start with layoffs. It started with less access to financing and less ability to “smooth” costs.

History does not repeat exactly. But it often repeats the sequence: shock, coping, then strain that shows up first in how people spend.

Credit cards and buy-now-pay-later work well as a bridge because they are fast. They feel flexible. They help people “catch up” without changing everything at once.

For many households, this is not about splurging. It is about keeping basics steady. Replacing a tire. Covering a medical bill. Handling a school expense. Paying for a repair that cannot wait.

That is also why these tools can grow quietly. They do not demand a big decision. Each purchase is small. Each plan is manageable. The problem is what happens when “temporary” becomes normal.

Once balances stay high, the bridge becomes a load. Minimum payments rise. Interest charges pile up. The budget starts carrying yesterday’s costs into tomorrow.

That is the second job: paying for the past while trying to afford the present.

People often imagine a consumer slowdown as one moment when spending drops. In practice, it usually starts earlier and looks softer.

It starts with substitution.

Money still flows through the economy. But it flows differently. Households become more payment-focused. They care about timing, not just total cost. They respond to promotions. They delay upgrades. They fix instead of replace.

Businesses can feel this shift even when overall sales are still holding. The mix changes. The mood changes. The sensitivity to small shocks increases.

When more daily life is financed, the whole system becomes more fragile to small changes.

Not just unemployment, but:

None of this guarantees a specific outcome. It sets a range of paths.

In one path, wages slowly catch up to the new price level. Credit use fades back toward normal. The bridge gets shorter.

In another path, reliance on credit stays high. Then the adjustment comes through credit stress: rising delinquencies, tighter terms, and a sharper pullback in discretionary spending. That kind of shift can happen before broad job losses show up.

The key idea is timing. Consumer strain can build while the headline numbers look better.

Cooling inflation is real progress. But many households still live with the higher baseline that inflation created.

So the consumer story often continues after the inflation story has moved on. Credit becomes a way to keep life steady while the new price level settles in. Over time, that “bridge” can turn into a lasting burden.

That is why this moment can feel familiar. Not because history repeats perfectly, but because the pattern is common: first the shock, then the coping, then the quiet substitutions that show where the stress really is.

The real signal is rarely in one data point. It is in the trajectory.