For a week, every tech name that reported got sold. Today the chips bounced — Nvidia up 3%, AMD up 4%, the semiconductor index up 2.7%. But Apple fell 2% after warning that memory costs would eat its margins. Four sectors gained. Seven didn't. The bounce was real but narrow, and tonight the country votes.
The Close
Mixed close on Election Day. The Nasdaq gained 0.8%. The S&P 500 edged up 0.3%. The Dow fell 0.5% — dragged lower by Apple, which is one of its heaviest components. Tech led the sector board for the first time in more than a week.
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| Nasdaq | 25,368 | +0.81% | ||
| Dow | 51,729 | −0.49% | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,563 | +0.28% | ||
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| Technology | +1.3% | |||
| Comm. Svcs. | +1.1% | |||
| Industrials | +1.0% | |||
| Real Estate | +0.2% | |||
| Health Care | −0.3% | |||
| Utilities | −0.6% | |||
| Energy | −0.6% | |||
| Financials | −0.6% | |||
| Cons. Disc. | −0.7% | |||
| Cons. Staples | −2.0% | |||
| Materials | −2.0% | |||
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The sector split tells you this wasn't a broad rally. Technology gained 1.3%, powered by the chip stocks that got crushed last week. Communication services added 1.1% — Alphabet clawed back some of its 13% loss from last Thursday. Industrials gained 1.0%. Real Estate was barely green at 0.2%. That's it. Four out of eleven.
The other seven sectors fell. Materials dropped 2.0%. Consumer staples lost 2.0%. Financials, energy, utilities, health care, and consumer discretionary were all red. The defensive sectors that led last week gave back ground today. The money that rotated into value last week started rotating back — but only partway.
Apple beat on earnings. It beat on iPhone revenue — up 15% from a year ago. Services revenue came in above estimates. But the company warned that rising memory chip costs would pressure margins next quarter. The stock fell 2.2%. That makes five of the six biggest tech companies that have either missed or spooked investors this earnings season. Microsoft is the only one that delivered without a catch.
What The Market Is Pricing In
The Nasdaq gained 0.8% while the Dow fell 0.5%. A week ago, that spread went the other direction. When it flips in a single session, the market is testing whether the selloff went too far.
Here's what happened. The semiconductor stocks that fell four straight days last week — Nvidia, AMD, Arm, Lam Research — all bounced Tuesday. The Philadelphia semiconductor index gained 2.7%. Money came back into the names that make the chips, not the names that buy them. Apple beat earnings and still fell. The pattern from last week held for the chip buyers. It broke for the chip makers.
But look at the breadth. Only 215 stocks in the S&P 500 closed higher. That means 285 fell. When an index gains 0.3% and more than half its stocks go down, a handful of large-cap names are doing all the work. On Wall Street they call this narrow breadth — and it's one of the clearest warning signs that a rally doesn't have legs. The last time the S&P gained on breadth this thin was right before the September pullback.
The S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the second straight session — the first time that's happened since June 2025. That's a line that matters. The 200-day average is the simplest measure of whether the market's long-term trend is up or down. When it's above the line, the trend is intact. When it closes below it for consecutive days, fund managers start selling to protect gains. It doesn't mean a crash is coming. It means the buyers who held through October are starting to rethink.
Tonight, America votes. Tomorrow morning, the results start coming in. The market doesn't care much about who wins — historically, the S&P 500 has gained an average of about 15% in the twelve months after every midterm election since 1950, regardless of which party takes the House. What the market cares about is that the uncertainty ends. Once the results are in, money that was sitting on the sidelines starts moving.
AMD reports after the close tonight. If AMD confirms the chip recovery, the Nasdaq extends tomorrow. If AMD stumbles, today's bounce was a head fake.
The last time the S&P sat below its 200-day average during a midterm week was November 2018. It stayed there for two months, then rallied 25% over the next year. The floor didn't hold on the first test. It held on the third.
What's Next
Three things I'm watching this week:
01 — AMD earnings — tonight, after the close
The chip rally today was built on hope. AMD's numbers will tell you if it was built on revenue too. If AMD shows data center AI chip sales growing faster than the Street expects, the semiconductor trade stabilizes and the Nasdaq carries into Wednesday. If the guidance disappoints, the chip bounce from today gives back everything by Thursday. Watch the data center revenue line — that's where the AI money shows up.
02 — Midterm election results — Wednesday morning
Polls close tonight. Results trickle in overnight. By Wednesday morning, the market will know whether Congress changes hands. A Republican sweep is priced as pro-business: tax cuts, deregulation, and higher deficits. A split result keeps the current policy mix. Either way, the removal of uncertainty is what matters. Watch the futures between 6 and 9 AM Wednesday for the first real reaction.
03 — The 200-day moving average — does the S&P hold?
The S&P closed below its 200-day average for the second straight day. If it stays below through Wednesday, the technical selling accelerates and the October lows get tested. If the election bounce or AMD earnings push it back above, the trend stays intact and the last two weeks look like a correction, not a break. The line is around 7,580. That's the number to watch.
The chips bounced. The breadth didn't. Tonight gives you three answers at once — AMD, the election, and whether tech's floor is real.
That's it for today. See you tomorrow after the close.
