SpaceX went public today. Priced at $135 last night. Opened at $150 this morning. Closed at $161.11 — up 19% on its first day of trading. The largest initial public offering in Wall Street history raised $75 billion and gave Elon Musk a net worth above one trillion dollars. On paper, the world's first. And in the same 24 hours, Trump canceled the overnight strikes he had promised against Iran, said the two sides had reached "a very strong memorandum of understanding," and told reporters a deal to reopen the Strait would be "finalized" soon. Oil fell. The Dow gained 0.7%. The S&P added 0.5%. The Nasdaq — the exchange that just added the biggest stock in IPO history — rose 0.2%. The market ends the wildest week of the year on hope: a rocket company that's worth $2 trillion, and a war that might be about to end. Five days from now, Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting. Everything depends on what comes between now and then.
SpaceX day. The stock opened at $150 — $15 above the $135 offering price — and climbed through the session to close at $161.11. That's a 19% first-day gain on a $75 billion offering. The company's market cap at the close: roughly $2.1 trillion. By any measure, the strongest debut for the largest IPO ever. The Dow gained 0.7%. The S&P rose 0.5%. The Nasdaq added 0.2%.
| The Numbers I Circled |
At the close, June 12 · Day change |
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| SpaceX (SPCX) |
$161.11 close |
+19% day one |
| Musk Net Worth |
above $1 trillion |
first ever |
| Iran MOU |
strikes canceled |
deal "soon" |
| S&P 500 Sectors |
Day change |
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| Information Technology |
|
+0.8% |
| Consumer Discretionary |
|
+0.7% |
| Financials |
|
+0.7% |
| Industrials |
|
+0.6% |
| Health Care |
|
+0.5% |
| Communication Services |
|
+0.4% |
| Materials |
|
+0.3% |
| Utilities |
|
+0.2% |
| Real Estate |
|
+0.1% |
| Consumer Staples |
|
−0.2% |
| Energy |
|
−0.5% |
| Biggest Losers |
Day change |
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| Notable Gainers |
Day change |
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SpaceX trades under the ticker SPCX on the Nasdaq. The company builds rockets, runs the Starlink satellite internet network, and has plans for AI data centers in orbit. Revenue is about $18 billion — meaning the stock is trading at roughly 116 times what the company brings in. Oppenheimer started coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target. The greenshoe — an option for the underwriters to sell 83 million more shares if demand holds — would bring the total raise to $86 billion. EchoStar gained 5% on its estimated 3% SpaceX stake. Rocket Lab rose on the space halo trade.
Trump delivered the second headline of the day before the market opened. He canceled the strikes he had promised Thursday night and said the US and Iran had reached "a very strong memorandum of understanding." The framework calls for all US forces to withdraw. The Strait of Hormuz would reopen. The deal could be finalized as early as next week when G7 leaders meet. Oil fell on the news. The stocks that pump crude gave back gains.
The Nasdaq "gyrated" all day — TheStreet's word. It opened flat, dipped on chip weakness, then rallied on the SpaceX pop and Iran news. The 0.2% gain doesn't tell you how messy the session was underneath. This was the third straight day of triple-digit Dow moves — down 950 Wednesday, up 900 Thursday, up a few hundred Friday. The week ends roughly where it started for the S&P. The sound and fury added up to almost nothing on the indexes — and everything on the story.
What The Market Is Pricing In
Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market priced this week — the whole thing, from Monday's dead-cat bounce through Friday's SpaceX debut — is a bet that the two biggest risks of 2026 are both about to resolve.
Here's the chain. The AI trade cracked last Friday when the Nasdaq fell 4%. It kept cracking Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as chips sold off, CPI hit 4.2%, PPI hit 6.5%, and Trump threatened Kharg Island. Then on Thursday the script flipped: Trump and Iran both said a deal is close, the Dow gained 900 points, and SpaceX priced its IPO into strength. Today SpaceX gained 19% and Trump canceled the strikes.
Two weeks ago, the market was pricing a ten-week rally with no end in sight. One week ago, it was pricing the end of the rally — a chip crash, a hot jobs number, rate-hike odds at 98%. Today it's pricing something in between: the AI trade isn't dead, but it's repriced. The war isn't over, but the MOU is on the table. And the biggest IPO in history just traded up 19%, which tells you there's still money willing to take risk — even in the middle of the most volatile week since April.
SpaceX closed at $161 — 19% above its offering price — and Trump said the war is ending, and together those two events tell you the market is choosing to believe that the second half of 2026 will be better than the last two weeks of trading suggested. That's the bet. A $2.1 trillion company went public on the same day the president said the Strait would reopen. If both hold — if SpaceX's valuation is justified and the MOU becomes a signed deal — the S&P goes back to 7,600 and the AI trade resumes. If either breaks — if SpaceX can't hold $135 next week, or if the MOU falls apart like the April ceasefire — then today was the peak of hope, not the start of recovery.
I watched Alibaba go public in September 2014. It was the largest IPO in history at the time. The stock gained 38% on day one. Everyone said it proved the Chinese internet boom was real. Two months later the stock had fallen 22% from that high. The first day tells you about demand. The first month tells you about value. SpaceX has demand. Whether it has value at 116 times revenue is a question the next twelve months will answer.
Three things I'm watching this weekend and into next week:
01 — FOMC June 17-18
Warsh's first meeting as chair. CPI at 4.2%. PPI at 6.5%. Rate-hike odds near 98%. But now the MOU is on the table. If the Iran deal looks real by Tuesday, Warsh can hold and say the inflation is temporary — driven by a war that's ending. If the deal stalls, he has to respond to the data: CPI up, PPI up, jobs strong, the ECB already hiked. The press conference Wednesday at 2:30 PM Eastern is the most important 45 minutes in markets since Warsh was sworn in. Watch the dot plot — if the Fed still publishes one. The Kraken blog reported Warsh may scrap it.
02 — SpaceX in its first full week of trading
The first day was strong: +19%. But the first week is the real test. Alibaba gained 38% on day one and gave most of it back within two months. SpaceX has a 30% retail allocation — the highest for any IPO this large. If retail holds and institutions add, the stock builds on $161. If retail sells into the first-week pop and institutions don't step in, the stock tests $135 and the IPO price becomes the floor everyone is watching.
03 — Iran MOU over the weekend
Trump said "finalized soon." That's not finalized. The April ceasefire was announced and fell apart in two weeks. The MOU framework calls for US withdrawal and the Strait reopening — but Iran's nuclear program, Israel's objections, and the Strait mine-clearing timeline are all unresolved. If the MOU holds through the weekend and a G7 signing is confirmed, oil opens below $80 on Monday. If it falls apart, oil goes back to $95 and Monday is a different story.
SpaceX went public. The war might be ending. The FOMC meets in five days. The market ends the week on hope — but the data underneath (CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5%, rate-hike odds 98%) hasn't changed. Hope bought 19% on SpaceX and 900 points on the Dow. Next week, hope meets the Fed. That's when we find out what it's worth.
That's it for today. Have a good weekend. I'll be back on Monday after the close.
— Tom Hartley
Today In Perspective · Published daily, Monday–Friday, after the close
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The author is not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
