The S&P 500 closed at a record today. So did the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. Three indexes at all-time highs. And only 38% of stocks in the broader market were green when the bell rang. Oil jumped 3% after Trump called Iran's peace proposal "garbage" and said the ceasefire is on "life support." The market is setting records while the foundation underneath gets thinner by the day.

New records, thin air. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% to close at 7,413 — another all-time high. The Nasdaq added 0.1% to 26,274. The Russell 2000 gained 0.3% to 2,869. All three hit intraday highs before fading into the close. The Dow rose about 0.2%.

The breadth numbers tell you everything. Only 37.8% of U.S. stocks finished in the green today. More than 55% declined. The index rose because technology and energy carried it — semiconductors in one hand, oil stocks in the other. Micron surged to a record high. The XLE energy ETF gained nearly 2%. Everything else went sideways or down.

Oil moved on the president's words. Trump called Iran's latest proposal "totally unacceptable" and "garbage." He told reporters the ceasefire is on "massive life support" with about a 1% chance of surviving. WTI jumped 3% to close at $98.07. Brent gained 3% to $104.21. Saudi Aramco's CEO said the market is losing roughly 100 million barrels of supply per week and warned that normalization could take until next year.

Trump also announced he'll suspend the federal gas tax — 18.4 cents a gallon on gasoline, 22.4 cents on diesel — "until it's appropriate" to bring it back. Gas now averages $4.52 a gallon nationally. Congress has to pass it. Both chambers are controlled by Republicans. The market read it as a consumer lifeline and a sign that the administration knows the oil price is hurting.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.6 basis points to 4.41%. The VIX jumped more than 7%. Dollar General fell nearly 6% on soft guidance. And JPMorgan's private bank released its mid-year outlook calling the AI supercycle "just getting started" — which is exactly what you'd expect from the bank that makes the most fees from AI-related deals.

Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market priced today is the strangest combination of the year: records at the top, rot underneath, and oil heading back toward $100 because the peace trade just broke.

Here's the chain. Last week the market rallied on two things: AMD's margins and the Axios report that a deal with Iran was close. Energy stocks sold off 4% on Wednesday. The whole thesis was "peace is coming, oil comes down, the Fed gets room to cut." Today Trump blew that up. He called Iran's response garbage. He said the ceasefire is on life support. Brent went back to $104. Energy stocks gained 2%. The peace trade from last Wednesday just reversed.

And yet the index still set a record. How? Because a small number of tech stocks — chips, AI infrastructure, memory — kept going up while everything else went down. Schwab's morning note flagged it: the cap-weighted S&P 500 has pulled ahead of the equal-weight version year to date. When the market-cap weighted index — where the biggest stocks have the most influence — beats the equal-weight index — where every stock counts the same — it means a handful of names are doing all the work. On Wall Street, this is what they call a concentration risk. The fewer stocks carrying the load, the more damage one bad print can do.

I've seen concentration this tight before. Summer 2020. Five stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook — carried the S&P to records while 60% of the index was still below its February high. That rally held for another four months because the five names kept delivering on earnings. When Apple missed in October, the whole index pulled back 7% in three weeks because there was nothing underneath to catch it.

The catch today: CPI comes out tomorrow morning at 8:30. The consensus is 0.6% headline, 0.4% core. With oil back above $98 and gas at $4.52, any number above consensus puts the rate-cut math back in the freezer. And with only 38% of stocks advancing, the narrow leadership that's carrying this rally needs the Fed math to work. If inflation runs hot and the ceasefire dies at the same time, the three or four names holding the index up are going to have to justify records all by themselves.

Three things I'm watching:

This is the number. Consensus is 0.6% headline month-over-month, 0.4% core. With Brent back at $104 and gas at $4.52, the energy component of headline CPI is going to run hot. Watch core. If core comes in at 0.3% or below, the wage relief from Friday's jobs report gets confirmed and the rate-cut path stays alive. If core comes in at 0.5% or above, the Fed is locked in and the narrow rally from this week gets tested hard. With only 38% of stocks advancing today, the tape doesn't have the breadth to absorb a bad inflation print.

The president is heading to Beijing to meet President Xi. Technology and rare earths are expected to be on the agenda. Any progress on chip trade restrictions or rare earth export controls moves the semiconductor sector — which is the one sector carrying the index right now. If the trip produces a deal on chip access, the AI rally gets another leg. If it produces new restrictions, the three names holding up the index get hit.

Trump said 1% chance. The market priced it closer to 50-50, based on the way oil moved — up 3% but not 10%. Over the next 48 hours, watch for Iran's supreme leader to respond to Trump's rejection. If Iran comes back with a revised proposal, oil eases and Monday's energy bid fades. If Iran escalates — more drone strikes, more ship seizures — Brent goes to $110 and the gas tax suspension becomes the lead story.

Three records and 38% breadth. That's a tape held up by a handful of names, and tomorrow's inflation number decides whether those names can keep carrying it alone.

That's it for today. See you tomorrow after the close.