The Nasdaq bounced 0.86% today. Micron gained 10%. The semiconductor ETF jumped 7%. Marvell surged 14% after getting added to the S&P 500. By mid-morning it looked like the chip crash was a one-day event and the bottom was in. Then the buyers left. The Nasdaq started the day up 1.4%. By the close it was 0.86%. The Dow fell 81 points. Only nine stocks in the entire S&P 500 hit a 52-week high. And over the weekend, Iran fired missiles at Israel for the first time since April. The ceasefire — which has been a ceasefire in name only — nearly came apart. Oil sat at $91. The 10-year rose to 4.564%. The calendar this week is the heaviest of the year: CPI Wednesday, Oracle Wednesday, PPI Thursday, SpaceX IPO Friday, FOMC in nine days. The bounce was real. It just wasn't convincing.
Chips bounced. The rest didn't. The Nasdaq gained 0.86%. The S&P rose 0.30%. The Dow fell 81 points. After Friday's 4.18% Nasdaq crash — the worst day since April 2025 — today's recovery clawed back less than a fifth of what was lost. And even that faded: the Nasdaq was up 1.4% in the morning before the sellers came back in the last two hours.
| The Numbers I Circled |
At the close, June 8 · Day change |
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| Nasdaq |
faded from +1.4% |
+0.86% |
| 10-Year Yield |
4.564% |
+2.8 bps |
| 52-Week Highs |
only 9 stocks |
thin breadth |
| S&P 500 Sectors |
Day change |
|
| Information Technology |
|
+1.2% |
| Communication Services |
|
+0.7% |
| Consumer Discretionary |
|
+0.4% |
| Materials |
|
+0.2% |
| Real Estate |
|
+0.1% |
| Energy |
|
−0.2% |
| Industrials |
|
−0.3% |
| Financials |
|
−0.4% |
| Health Care |
|
−0.5% |
| Consumer Staples |
|
−0.6% |
| Utilities |
|
−0.7% |
| Biggest Losers |
Day change |
|
| Notable Gainers |
Day change |
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|
|
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The semiconductor ETF gained 7% — its best day in over a year — after falling 10% on Friday, its worst day since March 2020. Micron led with a 10% bounce after losing 13% on Friday. Marvell jumped 14% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it will join the S&P 500 later this month, replacing Campbell's. Intel rose 12%. Nvidia added 2%. Jensen Huang told investors over the weekend that the selloff was a buying chance. The market listened in the morning and then changed its mind by the close.
Over the weekend, Iran fired missiles at Israel — the first direct strikes since April. Israel hit back, including airstrikes on villages in southern Lebanon. Iran said its military operation is over. Trump said diplomacy is "proceeding" and should "move quickly." But the ceasefire that was supposed to end the war has become window dressing. Both sides are firing through it. Oil sat at $91 — barely moved, because the strikes spared the oil infrastructure and the Strait stayed open. But 900 vessels moving through Hormuz have been dealing with "extreme jamming" of navigation signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. That's not a blockade. It's a warning.
The 10-year yield rose 2.8 basis points to 4.564%. Rate hike odds are still at 98% after Friday's blowout jobs report. Eli Lilly hit an all-time high. And the calendar ahead is loaded: CPI on Wednesday, Oracle earnings on Wednesday night, PPI on Thursday, the ECB rate decision Thursday, and the SpaceX IPO on Friday — expected to be the largest public offering in Wall Street history.
What The Market Is Pricing In
Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market priced today is doubt — dressed up as a recovery.
Here's the chain. Friday's selloff was driven by two forces: the chip trade cracking (Broadcom's flat AI outlook, then the cascade through Marvell, Micron, and the whole semiconductor complex) and the jobs number repricing the Fed (172,000 versus 85,000, rate hike odds to 98%). Today the chips bounced. But the macro didn't change. The jobs number is still 172,000. The rate hike odds are still 98%. The 10-year is still rising. Oil is still at $91 with Iran firing missiles through a ceasefire that nobody is enforcing.
When a market falls hard and then bounces, the first bounce tells you how much conviction the buyers have. On Wall Street there's an old phrase for a weak bounce after a crash — they call it a dead cat bounce. The idea is grim but accurate: even something with no life left will bounce off the floor if it falls far enough. The Nasdaq fell 4.18% and bounced 0.86%. That's a recovery of one-fifth. And it faded. The Nasdaq opened up 1.4% and lost half of that gain by the close. Only nine S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week highs all day. On a real recovery day after a 2.65% S&P drop, you'd see forty or fifty names hitting highs, not nine.
The Nasdaq bounced 0.86% after a 4.18% drop, faded from the morning highs, and only nine S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week highs — and that tells you the buyers who showed up today were renting, not buying. They came in on Huang's comments, on the Marvell S&P inclusion, on the reflexive "buy the dip" instinct that has worked for ten straight weeks. But they left when the clock hit 2 PM because Wednesday's CPI number is sitting in front of them like a wall. If CPI comes in hot — and with oil at $91, gas at $4.50, and the jobs market running hotter than expected — the rate-hike trade hardens and the selloff from Friday gets a second leg.
I saw this pattern in December 2018. The S&P fell 2.3% on December 17. It bounced the next day. Then on December 19, the Fed hiked 25 basis points and the market dropped again — eventually falling to the Christmas Eve low. The bounce before the Fed decision was a head fake because the data didn't support a pause. Today's bounce comes nine days before Warsh's first FOMC meeting. Wednesday's CPI will tell us whether the data supports a hold or a hike. If it's a hike, today's bounce was the dead cat variety.
Three things I'm watching:
01 — May CPI Wednesday June 10 at 8:30 AM Eastern
The number that decides the next two weeks. After 172,000 jobs and 98% rate hike odds, a hot CPI confirms that inflation isn't cooling and the Fed has to act. Watch core CPI — the number that strips out food and energy. If core is above 0.3% month over month, the June 17-18 FOMC meeting becomes a live hike meeting and the S&P tests Friday's low. If core comes in at 0.2% or below, the market gets a lifeline: the argument that the jobs number was a one-off (World Cup hiring) and the underlying trend is still disinflationary.
02 — Oracle earnings Wednesday June 10 after the close
Oracle is the next test of whether AI demand is still real or whether the Broadcom miss was the start of something bigger. Oracle has been building out AI cloud infrastructure at a record pace. If it confirms strong demand and raises guidance, the chip selloff was a valuation reset, not a demand problem. If it misses or guides flat — the Broadcom pattern — the AI trade takes another leg down and the dead cat bounce dies.
03 — SpaceX IPO Friday June 12
The largest IPO in Wall Street history. $75 billion at $135 per share. Ritholtz's Callie Cox said it best: "Blockbuster offerings have marked the peak of excess in past market cycles." The question isn't whether SpaceX is a good company — it is. The question is whether a $75 billion IPO in the same week as a 4% Nasdaq crash and a hot jobs report is the market's confidence or its last act of hubris. If SpaceX prices above $135 and trades up on day one, risk appetite is alive. If it prices below or breaks on the open, the IPO market is telling you the top is in.
The Nasdaq bounced and faded. The Dow fell. Nine stocks hit highs. And the heaviest calendar week of the year starts Wednesday morning at 8:30 with the CPI print. The dead cat bounced today. Wednesday decides if it gets up or goes back down.
That's it for today. See you tomorrow after the close.
— Tom Hartley
Today In Perspective · Published daily, Monday–Friday, after the close
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The author is not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
