The S&P 500 just closed its eighth straight winning week — the longest streak since late 2023. The Dow hit another record. Qualcomm surged 12%. Dell gained 16%. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair with the president standing next to him. And oil went up. Not down. Up. WTI climbed back to $98. Brent crossed $105. The rally this week was built on the hope that Iran would deal and oil would fall. Oil didn't fall. The market goes into a three-day weekend with the Strait still shut, the 30-year still above 5%, and a new Fed chair who hasn't said a word yet about what he plans to do.
The Close
Green into the weekend. The Dow gained 294 points to close at a fresh record — its second in a row. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq added 0.2%. All three finished in the green but came off their session highs, which is the market's way of saying: I want to be long, but I don't want to be too long going into a closed weekend.
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| S&P 500 | 8th week up | +0.4% | ||
| Dow Jones | +294 pts | 2nd record | ||
| WTI Crude | $98.05 | +1.8% | ||
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| Information Technology |
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+1.0% | ||
| Energy |
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+0.8% | ||
| Health Care |
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+0.7% | ||
| Communication Services |
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+0.5% | ||
| Real Estate |
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+0.4% | ||
| Utilities |
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+0.3% | ||
| Financials |
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+0.3% | ||
| Industrials |
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+0.2% | ||
| Materials |
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+0.2% | ||
| Consumer Staples |
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+0.1% | ||
| Consumer Discretionary |
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+0.1% | ||
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Qualcomm ripped almost 12% — the biggest single-stock move of the day and one of the largest one-day gains for a major chip name this month. Dell surged 16% after a round of analyst price target increases ahead of its earnings report next week. Health care was the best sector of the week, up 3.4% — the strongest weekly gain for the group since November. DexCom led that run with a 17% weekly gain. The defensive sectors that got crushed earlier this week when yields spiked are ending the week on a recovery.
Yields eased. The 10-year fell about 3 basis points to 4.56%. The 30-year dropped 4 basis points to 5.06% — still above 5%, but off the 5.185% high from Tuesday. The bond market is giving a little back, and the equity market is taking it.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new chair of the Federal Reserve at a White House ceremony this morning. Trump stood next to him and said, "I want Kevin to be totally independent." The market took that in stride. Warsh hasn't spoken publicly about rates yet. His first public remarks — and the June 17-18 FOMC meeting — are the next big events on the Fed calendar.
Oil was the outlier. WTI rose 1.8% to $98.05. Brent gained 2.3% to $105. Barclays flagged a 6-to-8 million barrel-per-day supply deficit and said U.S. inventories are within reach of their lowest levels since 2020. The rally this week was driven by Iran peace hopes. Today oil went up anyway. That's the loose thread going into the long weekend.
Markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day. Trading resumes Tuesday.
What The Market Is Pricing In
Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market priced this week is two things at once — and they don't fit together.
Here's the chain. Monday the market split — Dow up, Russell down 2.4%. Tuesday the 30-year hit 5.185% and even good news couldn't lift stocks. Wednesday oil fell 6% on Iran hopes and the Dow surged 645 points. Thursday Nvidia beat on every line and the stock fell, but the Dow hit a record because oil fell again. Today the Dow extended the record, the S&P closed its eighth straight winning week, and yields eased further.
The bullish read says: the worst is over. Yields peaked Tuesday at 5.185% on the 30-year and have been falling since. Oil has come off the $110 high. Nvidia proved the AI earnings cycle is intact. The consumer is still spending — Walmart's revenue was up 7.3%. And the new Fed chair might bring a steadier hand.
The bearish read says: oil went up today, not down. The Strait is still shut. The 30-year is still above 5%. Walmart cut guidance because consumers are trading down to essentials. Nvidia beat and the stock didn't go up. The eighth straight winning week was the thinnest of the eight — the S&P gained less than 1% — and it was held together by hope, not proof.
The S&P 500 just posted its eighth straight winning week, and the question going into the long weekend is whether the streak is momentum or exhaustion. Eight weeks in a row hasn't happened since late 2023. The last time the market strung together a streak this long and then paused, it gave back about half of the run over the next month. That's not a prediction. It's a pattern worth keeping in your pocket as you check the headlines over the weekend.
I remember November 2018. The market rallied into Thanksgiving on trade deal hopes with China. The S&P gained 2% that week. Then no deal came over the holiday weekend, and the market fell 7% in December. Rallies built on hope need the hope to turn into a headline within a window. Long weekends are the most dangerous moment for hope trades.
The forward-looking read: Tuesday's open will tell you everything. If Iran news is positive over the weekend, oil opens below $95 and the rally extends. If the talks stall or Trump resumes strikes, oil opens above $105 and the 30-year goes back toward 5.2%. Warsh's first public comments matter — if he signals patience, the yield retreat continues. If he signals that inflation demands action, the bond market tightens and the equity math changes again.
What's Next
Three things I'm watching over the long weekend:
01 — Iran headlines Saturday through Monday
The market is closed but the news isn't. Trump said he gave Iran more time, but the "clock is ticking" language hasn't gone away. Any framework for a deal sends oil down $10 on Tuesday's open. Any collapse in talks — or a resumed strike — sends it up $10. The oil price when the market reopens Tuesday morning is the single most important number of the week.
02 — Warsh's first public remarks as Fed chair
He was sworn in today. He hasn't said a word about rates, inflation, or the balance sheet. The market is pricing 50% odds of a hike by December. Warsh's reputation is as a hawk — he dissented from easing during the 2008 crisis. If his first comments lean hawkish, the 30-year goes back above 5.1% and the equity market reprices. If he sounds patient, yields keep easing and the Dow extends the record run.
03 — Dell earnings Tuesday after the close
Dell surged 16% today on analyst upgrades. That's a big bar to clear when the actual number comes out. After Nvidia's beat-and-fall on Thursday, the market is in a "show me" mood on tech earnings. If Dell confirms the AI server build-out is accelerating, it validates the picks-and-shovels trade from two weeks ago. If it disappoints, the 16% gain gets given back fast.
Eight straight weeks. Two Dow records. One new Fed chair. And oil going the wrong way into a three-day weekend. The streak is intact, but it's walking into the longest pause it's had in two months. Tuesday's open writes the next chapter.
That's it for today. Have a good weekend.
