The Dow gained 370 points. The Nasdaq lost 1%. On the same day. Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and American Express carried the Dow higher on the peace trade — the Iran deal is signed, oil is falling, the economy should improve. The Nasdaq fell because the rest of tech is being drained by a single stock. SpaceX surged 16% and briefly passed Microsoft to become the fourth most valuable company in America — four days after its IPO. Then Musk announced a $60 billion all-stock deal to buy Anysphere, the company behind Cursor, the AI coding tool. SpaceX is up 56% from its $135 offering price. It's consuming everything: capital, attention, momentum. And tomorrow at 2 PM, Kevin Warsh gives his first rate decision and his first press conference as Fed chair. The hold is priced. What isn't priced is how he frames it.
Split tape. The Dow gained 370 points on the backs of Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and American Express — all up more than 1% as the peace dividend worked through the value names. The Nasdaq fell 1%. The S&P 500 slipped. Tech and communication stocks weighed on the broader market while the Dow's price-weighted structure rewarded the old-economy names. This is the same split we saw on June 4 when the Dow gained 875 and the Nasdaq fell. The difference: this time SpaceX was the headline on both sides.
| The Numbers I Circled |
At the close, June 16 · Day change |
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| SpaceX (SPCX) |
passed Microsoft |
+16% day 3 |
| Cursor deal |
$60B all-stock |
3.4% dilution |
| Dow vs Nasdaq |
Dow +370 pts |
Nasdaq −1.03% |
| S&P 500 Sectors |
Day change |
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| Industrials |
|
+1.5% |
| Financials |
|
+1.2% |
| Health Care |
|
+0.8% |
| Consumer Staples |
|
+0.5% |
| Materials |
|
+0.4% |
| Utilities |
|
+0.2% |
| Real Estate |
|
−0.2% |
| Energy |
|
−0.4% |
| Consumer Discretionary |
|
−0.7% |
| Communication Services |
|
−1.0% |
| Information Technology |
|
−1.2% |
| Biggest Losers |
Day change |
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| Notable Gainers |
Day change |
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SpaceX gained 16% on Tuesday — its third day of trading. The stock touched $219, briefly giving the company a market cap of $2.95 trillion and edging past Microsoft. At the close it settled around $2.78 trillion, still larger than Amazon. In four trading sessions, SpaceX has gone from a $135 IPO price to a stock that's worth more than every company on earth except Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. That's a gain of 56% in three and a half days.
Then the deal. SpaceX announced it will acquire Anysphere — the company behind Cursor, the AI coding tool — for $60 billion in an all-stock transaction. No IPO cash used. Closing expected in the third quarter. There's a $10 billion breakup fee if it falls apart. Bill Ackman posted on X that the deal "costs materially less in dilution because of SpaceX's high valuation." He's right. When your stock is trading at 116 times revenue, $60 billion in stock is pocket change — roughly 3.4% dilution. SpaceX is using its sky-high price as a currency to buy real AI revenue.
The FOMC two-day meeting started today. The decision comes tomorrow at 2 PM Eastern. May Retail Sales also come out tomorrow morning. The rate-hold odds are 98.6%. Nobody expects a hike. The question is the press conference.
What The Market Is Pricing In
Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market told you today — with the Dow up 370 and the Nasdaq down 1% on the same afternoon — is that the peace trade and the AI trade are now running in opposite directions.
Here's the chain. The Iran deal gave the Dow its cover: oil at $80, war ending, the industrial and financial companies that make up the Dow's biggest weights benefit from lower input costs and a calmer world. Goldman makes money on deals — and the deal pipeline just reopened after months of war uncertainty. Caterpillar sells equipment to the companies that rebuild after conflicts. American Express makes money when people travel, and travel is coming back as the Strait opens.
But the Nasdaq is a different animal. Tech stocks need low rates and big multiples to work. CPI is still at 4.2%. PPI is still at 6.5%. The 10-year hasn't come down yet. And SpaceX is absorbing the speculative capital that used to go into Nvidia, Marvell, and Broadcom. Every dollar chasing SPCX is a dollar that isn't chasing the rest of the Nasdaq. When the largest new stock in the market goes up 56% in four days, it creates a gravity well that pulls money out of everything else. Microsoft fell 2% today. Not because Microsoft did anything wrong — but because SpaceX passed it, and the funds that track market-cap weighting had to adjust.
The Dow up 370 and the Nasdaq down 1% on FOMC eve tells you the market is making two bets at once: the value side is betting the deal gives Warsh cover to hold and sound dovish, and the growth side is betting that even if Warsh holds, the data on the books — CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5% — forces him to keep the door open for a hike, and that keeps the pressure on tech multiples. Tomorrow at 2 PM we find out which bet wins. The decision itself is priced — 98.6% odds of a hold. The language isn't.
I remember July 30, 2019. The day before Powell cut rates for the first time since the financial crisis. Everyone expected the cut. The question was how he'd frame it. He called it a "mid-cycle adjustment" — two words that told the market he wasn't starting a cutting cycle, he was making a one-off move. The market sold off. Tomorrow's stakes are the same but reversed. The question isn't whether Warsh holds. It's whether he says the inflation was driven by a war that's ending — or says the data demands caution regardless. One framing gives the market room to run. The other keeps the hike threat alive and the Nasdaq stays under pressure.
Three things I'm watching:
01 — FOMC decision Wednesday June 17 at 2:00 PM, press conference at 2:30 PM
Warsh's first. The hold is priced. The language isn't. Watch for two things: first, whether the statement acknowledges the Iran deal as a factor in the inflation outlook. If it does, it signals the Fed sees the inflation as temporary and war-driven — and that's dovish. Second, watch the dot plot. If the median dot shifts from one hike to zero or one cut, the 10-year drops and the Nasdaq rallies hard. If the dots hold at one hike, the market stays split.
02 — May Retail Sales Wednesday morning
The report comes out before the FOMC decision. If retail sales are strong, it confirms the consumer is holding up despite $4 gas and 4.2% inflation — and that complicates Warsh's dovish case because strong spending keeps prices elevated. If retail sales are weak, it gives Warsh another reason to frame the inflation as peaking and hold with dovish language. The consensus is around 0.3% month over month. Watch the control group — the subset that feeds into GDP calculations.
03 — SpaceX: how long can $135 → $219 hold?
SPCX is up 56% in four sessions. It briefly passed Microsoft. It announced a $60 billion acquisition. And it's doing all of this on a limited float with no options market yet and no index inclusion for another two weeks. When options start trading and the Nasdaq-100 adds the stock, the dynamics shift. Institutional flows replace retail momentum. If the stock consolidates between $180 and $220, the IPO was the real deal. If it keeps going vertical, the late-week gravity — FOMC, Juneteenth holiday, thin volume Thursday — could create the pullback the shorts are waiting for.
The Dow is up. The Nasdaq is down. SpaceX is consuming everything. And in 24 hours, Warsh speaks for the first time as chair. The peace trade and the AI trade split today. Tomorrow at 2:30, one sentence from Warsh puts them back together — or tears them further apart.
That's it for today. See you tomorrow after the close.
— Tom Hartley
Today In Perspective · Published daily, Monday–Friday, after the close
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The author is not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
