Dell blew the doors off last night. Revenue of $43.84 billion — 88% growth, 24% above estimates. Data center sales nearly tripled. The company raised its full-year outlook to $165-169 billion, blowing past the $142.5 billion Wall Street expected. And then it landed a $9.7 billion Pentagon deal. The stock surged 33% today. HPE jumped 12%. Super Micro rallied in sympathy. The entire AI hardware complex caught fire. All three indexes closed at records. The S&P posted its ninth straight winning week — the longest streak since 2023. The Nasdaq gained 8% in May. And Trump said he's in the Situation Room making a "final determination" on Iran. Oil fell below $88. The 30-year dropped below 5%. This is the best setup the market has had all year, and the weekend decides whether it holds.
The Close
Records across the board. The Dow gained over 350 points to close above 51,000 for the first time — up 0.7%. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to around 7,579. The Nasdaq added 0.2% to roughly 26,971. All three hit fresh intraday and closing highs. The S&P closed out its ninth straight winning week, and the Nasdaq finished May up 8%.
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| Dell (DELL) | $43.8B rev | +33% | ||
| S&P 500 | 9th week up | +0.2% record | ||
| 30-Year Yield | 4.978% | below 5% | ||
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| Information Technology |
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+1.5% | ||
| Communication Services |
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+0.7% | ||
| Consumer Discretionary |
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+0.5% | ||
| Health Care |
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+0.4% | ||
| Real Estate |
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+0.3% | ||
| Materials |
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+0.2% | ||
| Utilities |
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+0.1% | ||
| Consumer Staples |
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0.0% | ||
| Financials |
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−0.3% | ||
| Industrials |
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−0.4% | ||
| Energy |
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−1.0% | ||
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Dell was the star. Revenue of $43.84 billion was 88% above a year ago and 24% above what the Street expected. That's not a beat. That's a demolition. The data center and server business — the part that runs on Nvidia chips — grew 181% year over year and now makes up nearly two-thirds of the company's revenue. Adjusted earnings of $4.86 per share crushed the $2.94 estimate. The company raised its full-year guide to $17.90 in earnings per share on revenue of $165-169 billion — the Street had $13.09 on $142.5 billion. And on top of all that, the Pentagon awarded Dell a $9.7 billion software contract.
The stock gained 33%. HPE jumped 12% in sympathy. Super Micro rallied. For the week, both Dell and Snowflake gained more than 40%. Yesterday's AI rotation from chips to software? Today it was hardware's turn again. The whole complex won.
Energy fell for the fourth straight day. OneOK led the sector lower, losing more than 3%. Chevron and Exxon both fell 0.8%. Oil dropped again: WTI settled at $87.36, down 1.7%, and Brent fell to $92.05. The 10-year yield eased to 4.443%. The 30-year fell to 4.978% — below 5% for the first time in two weeks.
Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that he is meeting in the Situation Room "to make a final determination" on Iran. He said the Strait of Hormuz "must be immediately open, no tolls" and that mines will be removed. Secretary of State Rubio met with Pakistan's foreign minister today to continue the mediation. Late in the afternoon, Trump said the deal would be announced soon. The market heard every word and bought.
What The Market Is Pricing In
Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market priced this week is the most complete bull case since the rally started in March.
Here's the chain. Two weeks ago, the 30-year was at 5.185%. The 10-year was at 4.65%. Oil was at $110. Rate-hike odds were at 50%. The equity risk premium — the extra return you get for owning stocks instead of bonds — had shrunk to 0.17. The market looked like it was running on fumes.
Then the Iran framework came together. Oil fell from $110 to $87 in eleven trading days. The 10-year dropped from 4.65% to 4.44%. The 30-year fell from 5.185% to 4.978% — below 5% for the first time since mid-May. A Fed governor said rate hikes aren't coming on a temporary energy spike. And in the middle of all that, Dell posted the kind of quarter that makes you rethink what AI demand looks like — revenue 24% above estimates, guidance 19% above the Street, a Pentagon deal worth nearly $10 billion.
The S&P 500 just closed its ninth straight winning week, and the two legs holding up the rally — falling oil and rising AI earnings — both got stronger this week, not weaker. That's rare. Usually by week nine, one leg starts to wobble and the other one can't hold the weight. This time the oil leg got reinforced by the Iran framework and the AI leg got reinforced by Dell and Snowflake. The question going into the weekend is whether both legs hold through June.
I saw a similar setup in the spring of 2019. The market rallied relentlessly from the Christmas 2018 low through April. The Fed had pivoted from hiking to pausing. Earnings were solid. The mood was euphoric. Then in May, Trump escalated the China trade war and the S&P dropped 6% in three weeks. The lesson: long rallies built on macro hope are tough to kill but easy to shock. One policy reversal can erase a month of gains in a week. Today's rally has two macro legs — Iran and the Fed. If both hold, the ninth week becomes the twelfth or the fifteenth. If either one breaks — if Iran walks or the Fed turns hawkish — the snap is fast and it comes from a place nobody is watching.
The forward-looking read: June starts Monday. The market enters the month with the S&P at a record, the Nasdaq up 8% in May, oil below $88, the 30-year below 5%, and the president in the Situation Room deciding on an Iran deal. If the deal comes through this weekend, oil drops to $80 on Monday and the S&P pushes toward 7,700. If it doesn't, and Trump follows through on his "one way or the other" language, oil reverses and the four-day energy selloff becomes a buying opportunity. The market has picked its side. This weekend determines whether it was right.
What's Next
Three things I'm watching this weekend:
01 — Trump's "final determination" on Iran
He said it today. He's in the Situation Room. He wants the Strait open, no tolls, mines removed. Iran wants to keep long-term control of the waterway. Those two positions don't fit in the same deal. If Trump announces a framework by Monday morning, oil opens below $80 and the rally extends hard into June. If the talks collapse and strikes resume, oil goes back above $100 and the ninth week of gains becomes the last for a while.
02 — Dell's ripple effect next week
Dell beat by 24% on revenue and raised guidance 19% above the Street. That's the strongest validation of the AI hardware trade since Nvidia reported on May 20. HPE reports June 3. Marvell reports June 5. Both are in the same supply chain. If they echo Dell's demand signals, the AI trade broadens further. If they don't, Dell becomes the exception, not the rule.
03 — The 30-year below 5%
The 30-year closed at 4.978% today — the first close below 5% in two weeks. That's a number with gravity. If it stays below 5% next week, the bond market is confirming that the oil-driven inflation spike is easing. If it bounces back above 5.1% on a hot inflation print or a hawkish Warsh speech, the equity risk premium tightens again and the rally's math gets harder.
Nine straight weeks. Three indexes at records. Dell validated the AI trade. Oil below $88. The 30-year below 5%. And the president in the Situation Room deciding on Iran. The market has never been more confident — or more exposed. This weekend writes the next month.
That's it for today. Have a good weekend. I'll be back on Monday after the close.
