The S&P 500 crossed 7,600 today for the first time in history. Nvidia gained 6% after Jensen Huang stood on a stage in Taipei and said AI is coming to every personal computer — and called it as big a moment as the invention of the smartphone. Oil spiked 5% on an Iranian state media report. And the President of the United States told CNBC he doesn't care if Iran peace talks are over. "I couldn't care less," he said. "It started to get very boring." The market heard all of that — the oil spike, the geopolitical dismissal, the inflation still running hot — and bought to a record anyway. For three months, every rally was held hostage by the Iran deal. Today the market broke free.
The Close
New month, new records. The S&P 500 closed above 7,600 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq hit a record, led by tech. The Dow followed. All three indexes started June at all-time highs. The market opened lower on a 5% oil spike driven by an Iranian Tasnim news agency report, dipped again when Trump told CNBC midday that he doesn't care if the talks collapse — then rallied into the close on pure tech strength.
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| S&P 500 | above 7,600 | first time ever | ||
| Nvidia (NVDA) | Computex launch | +6.0% | ||
| ISM Mfg. | 54 (beat 53.2) | +1.3 pts | ||
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| Information Technology |
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+2.0% | ||
| Energy |
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+1.5% | ||
| Communication Services |
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+0.7% | ||
| Real Estate |
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+0.4% | ||
| Materials |
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+0.3% | ||
| Health Care |
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+0.2% | ||
| Industrials |
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+0.1% | ||
| Consumer Discretionary |
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+0.1% | ||
| Consumer Staples |
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−0.2% | ||
| Utilities |
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−0.3% | ||
| Financials |
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−0.4% | ||
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Nvidia was the engine. Up 6%. Jensen Huang keynoted Computex in Taipei and unveiled the RTX Spark Superchip — an AI processor built for personal computers, not data centers. "This reinvention of the computer is as big a deal as the reinvention of the phone into what we now know as the smartphone," he said. Dell rose 1.7%. HP gained 4%. And Intel fell 6% because Nvidia just told the PC market that its decades-long lock on personal computing chips is over.
The software names kept running. ServiceNow surged 9%. Adobe gained 6.6%. Salesforce rose 5.8%. Last week it was Dell and Snowflake. This week the rally spread to the software companies that sit on top of the AI stack. The whole trade is broadening.
Berkshire Hathaway made its first big acquisition under Greg Abel — Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8 billion in cash. The stock jumped 22%. The biggest value investor in the world just bet on the U.S. housing market at a time when mortgage rates are still near 7%. That tells you something about where smart money thinks rates are headed.
ISM Manufacturing came in at 54 — stronger than the 53.2 expected. New orders rose to 56.8. The economy is still growing. But the prices component sat at 82.1 — still very hot. Growth with inflation. The Fed's nightmare combo.
What The Market Is Pricing In
Stocks don't price today. They price the next six to twelve months. And what the market priced today is the single most important shift since the war began three months ago: it doesn't need the Iran deal anymore.
Here's the chain. For three months, every rally came back to oil. Oil up, stocks down. Oil down, stocks up. The Iran deal was the swing variable. On Monday the 18th, I wrote about the flight to quality. On Tuesday the 19th, the 30-year hit 5.185% and the bond market took control. On Wednesday the 20th, oil fell 6% and the market surged on Iran hopes. On Thursday the 21st, Nvidia beat and the market shrugged because the catalyst had shifted to oil. Last week, oil fell below $90 and the market priced in a deal that wasn't signed.
Today, the president said he doesn't care if the talks are over. Oil jumped 5%. And the S&P closed at a record anyway.
For the first time since the war started, the market rallied through an oil spike and a geopolitical dismissal — and the S&P closed above 7,600 because the AI trade is now strong enough to carry the tape without the Iran tailwind. That's the break. For twelve weeks the market needed falling oil to go up. Today it went up with oil rising. The difference is Nvidia at Computex, Dell's 33% earnings pop on Friday, Snowflake's 36% gain last Thursday, and the software rally that broadened today to ServiceNow, Adobe, and Salesforce. The AI earnings cycle has become its own engine. It doesn't need an oil lubricant anymore.
I remember October 2022. The market bottomed even though inflation was still at 8% and the Fed was still hiking. The risk hadn't gone away — the market had just absorbed it. It stopped being the catalyst because it was already in the price. Today feels the same. Iran hasn't been resolved. Oil is still above $90. The Strait is still shut. But the market has been living with it for three months and has decided to look through it. The risk is priced. The AI opportunity isn't fully priced yet.
The forward-looking read: this is the most bullish setup since the war began, and the most dangerous. Bullish because the AI trade is broadening (hardware, software, PCs), the economy is growing (ISM 54), and yields are easing (30-year below 5%). Dangerous because the market is now ignoring oil — and oil spiked 5% today on a report that the talks might collapse. If Iran walks away and Trump follows through on strikes, oil goes to $110 and the market discovers it still cares. June is also the worst month for stocks in a midterm election year. The nonfarm payrolls report arrives Friday. The FOMC meets June 17-18. And Warsh still hasn't spoken.
What's Next
Three things I'm watching:
01 — May jobs report Friday June 5 at 8:30 AM Eastern
The nonfarm payrolls number sets the tone for the June 17-18 FOMC meeting. A strong number (above 200,000 with wages rising) gives Warsh cover to stay hawkish. A weak number (below 150,000 with unemployment ticking up) changes the math — the Fed gets room to hold, yields fall further, and the equity rally extends. Watch hourly earnings: if wages are rising faster than 4%, the Fed can't ignore the inflation data no matter what oil does.
02 — Nvidia's Computex week
Huang's keynote was today. But Computex runs all week in Taipei. Every chip company, every server builder, every cloud provider is there. If AMD, Qualcomm, or Intel announce competitive AI PC chips, the trade broadens further. If they don't, Nvidia's 6% gain today is the start of a new leg — the company just opened a second front in the AI war, from data centers to desktops.
03 — HPE earnings Tuesday June 3 after the close
Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports Tuesday. After Dell's 33% surge on Friday, the AI server trade is hot. HPE is in the same supply chain. If it confirms Dell's demand signals — backlog growth, margins holding, enterprise AI adoption accelerating — the hardware trade gets a third validation after Nvidia and Dell. If it misses, Dell's blowout was company-specific, not sector-wide.
The S&P crossed 7,600. The president said he doesn't care about Iran. And Nvidia said AI is coming to every computer you own. The market just told you the next chapter isn't about oil — it's about silicon.
That's it for today. See you tomorrow after the close.
