Publications

The economy is still growing. The consumer is still slowing. Both are true.

PMI hit a 4-year high. The Dow surged 500 points. But all three indexes posted weekly losses. Bessent Monday. Jackson Hole. Nvidia Wednesday.

Aug 21, 2026

Walmart said the consumer is making trade-offs. The Dow fell 700 points.

Treasury buyback lasted one day. 30Y yields rebounded. Oil hit $93. National debt passed $37 trillion. The life raft deflated.

Aug 20, 2026

Treasury stepped in. The market exhaled.

Buybacks doubled on long-dated bonds. 30Y yield fell 8bp. Moderna doubled on a melanoma vaccine. FOMC: "several favored raising rates." Walmart tomorrow.

Aug 19, 2026

The chip trade broke. The 30-year yield hit a 19-year high.

Semis fell 5.5%. SanDisk and Marvell each dropped 9%. Home Depot beat but the market didn't care. Yields are doing the Fed's job.

Aug 18, 2026

Iran threatened to go on offense. Oil surged to $89.

The Dow dropped 270 before recovering half. Home Depot tomorrow. Walmart Thursday. The consumer test starts now.

Aug 17, 2026

The consumer blinked. The market didn't.

Retail sales fell the most in nine months. Sentiment crashed to 51. The S&P still posted its third straight weekly gain. But the Strait is down to two ships a day.

Aug 14, 2026