The minutes were clear. The market is pricing 17% odds. Someone's wrong.
Oct 7, 2026
The equal-weight version is down 3.6% this month. The headline just hit a record.
Oct 6, 2026
ISM services prices paid: 74. Manufacturing was 77.9. Both the highest since the war.
Oct 5, 2026
Yields dropped to 5.15% on the miss, then reversed to close higher on the day.
Oct 2, 2026
Prices paid surged to 77.9 — the highest since the war started in March.
Oct 1, 2026
Core PCE hit 3.0% — well below the 3.3% forecast. The rally lasted four hours.
Sep 30, 2026
